Bitcoin outlook

Short to long horizons, at a glance.

Edition updated 2026-10-13
Forecasts were produced at the reference times shown below.

Outlook by horizon

Forecast history

Short term

24 hours

Down or flat outlook

Up46.6%Down or flat53.4%

Historical upward frequency 48.5%Difference -1.9 pp

Uncalibrated baseline

Historical comparison samples: 2,507

Check the reference time
As of 2026-10-12 09:00 · KST (UTC+9)

Medium term

7–30 days

7 days

Upward outlook

Up53.6%Down or flat46.4%

Historical upward frequency 52.8%Difference +0.9 pp

Improvement uncertain

Historical comparison samples: 2,154

Check the reference time
As of 2026-10-12 09:00 · KST (UTC+9)

Long term

3–12 months

3 months

Upward outlook

Up65.5%Down or flat34.5%

Historical upward frequency 62.0%Difference +3.5 pp

Improvement uncertain

Historical comparison samples: 88

Check the reference time
As of 2026-10-12 07:30 · KST (UTC+9)

Different horizons can point in different directions

The bar shows upward probability; the vertical line marks the historical upward frequency. Down or flat is the remaining probability. Historical frequency is not a confidence interval. Read the reference time and validation status alongside each number.

View recorded outcomes Upcoming releases

Forecast and outcome history

All records

The history of recorded upward probabilities. Forecast date means the data timestamp for short and medium horizons, and the publication timestamp for long horizons. All charts use the same 0–100% Y-axis; the date range grows as records accumulate.

Date basisForecast dateEvaluation dateKorea Standard Time (UTC+9) · Select a point for dates and outcome status.

63 records do not state an evaluation date in the source and appear only in the forecast-date view.

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-06
Recorded outcome: Up
Status: Outcome recorded
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.6%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-29
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:19 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:19 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:19 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:22 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:22 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:22 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:28 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:28 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:28 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:31 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:31 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:31 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:43 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:43 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:43 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:46 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:46 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 12:46 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 13:15 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 13:15 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 13:15 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 13:16 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 13:16 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 13:16 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 13:22 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 13:22 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-09-29 13:22 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-09-30 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-09-30 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-09-30 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date: 2026-09-30 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-07
Recorded outcome: Up
Status: Outcome recorded
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date: 2026-09-30 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-30
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-01 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-10-01 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.9%

Forecast date: 2026-10-01 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-01 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-08
Recorded outcome: Down or flat
Status: Outcome recorded
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-01 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-31
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-02 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-02 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.9%

Forecast date: 2026-10-02 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-02 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-09
Recorded outcome: Down or flat
Status: Outcome recorded
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-02 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-01
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-03 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-03 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 79.0%

Forecast date: 2026-10-03 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.8%

Forecast date: 2026-10-03 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-10
Recorded outcome: Down or flat
Status: Outcome recorded
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-03 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-02
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-04 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-04 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.9%

Forecast date: 2026-10-04 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-04 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-11
Recorded outcome: Down or flat
Status: Outcome recorded
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-04 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-03
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-05 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-05 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 79.0%

Forecast date: 2026-10-05 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-05 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-12
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Awaiting data
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-05 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-04
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-06 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-06 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 79.0%

Forecast date: 2026-10-06 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-06 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-13
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-06 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-05
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-07 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-07 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 79.0%

Forecast date: 2026-10-07 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 45.4%

Forecast date: 2026-10-07 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-08
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: 24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-07 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-14
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-07 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-06
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-08 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-08 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 79.0%

Forecast date: 2026-10-08 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 45.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-08 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-09
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: 24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-08 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-15
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-08 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-07
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-09 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-10-09 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-10-09 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 45.9%

Forecast date: 2026-10-09 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-10
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: 24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-09 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-16
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.4%

Forecast date: 2026-10-09 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-08
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-10 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.3%

Forecast date: 2026-10-10 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.7%

Forecast date: 2026-10-10 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 46.0%

Forecast date: 2026-10-10 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-11
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: 24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-10 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-17
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-10 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-09
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-11 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.3%

Forecast date: 2026-10-11 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-10-11 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: Not stated in source
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 46.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-11 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-12
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis: 24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-11 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-18
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-11 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-10
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-12 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: 2027-01-09
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date: 2026-10-12 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: 2027-04-10
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date: 2026-10-12 07:30 KST
Evaluation date: 2027-10-10
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 46.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-12 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-13
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: 24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.6%

Forecast date: 2026-10-12 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-10-19
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.5%

Forecast date: 2026-10-12 09:00 KST
Evaluation date: 2026-11-11
Recorded outcome: Not yet linked
Status: Before evaluation date
Validation basis: Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

Select a chart point to see its dates, probability and outcome status here.

Confidence region Not calculated

Confidence regions have not been calculated: realized frequencies by probability band and independent validation samples are not linked. A forecast probability of 70% does not mean the forecast is 70% reliable.

Factors to consider when assessing reliability

Context for reading the probabilities
Horizon	Confirmed inputs	Historical comparison samples	Validation status
24 hours	BTC hourly candles	2,507	Uncalibrated baseline
7 days	BTC closing price · BTC volatility	2,154	Improvement uncertain
30 days	BTC closing price · BTC volatility	2,077	Improvement uncertain
3 months	Individual input linkage unverified	88	Improvement uncertain
6 months	Individual input linkage unverified	83	Improvement uncertain
12 months	Individual input linkage unverified	71	Improvement uncertain

This table summarizes the latest edition. Historical comparison samples are not forecasts independently evaluated after publication. Small samples and overlapping periods can weaken validation. Input linkage, calibration and data freshness also matter. The actual probability contribution of background factors such as interest rates and liquidity has not been verified.

Lines connect records for the same horizon; they are not projected price paths or returns. Records awaiting evaluation or data are not counted as successes or failures.

Recent outcome table

The original Bitcoin outlook and the subsequently recorded outcome
Evaluation start	Horizon	Original outlook	Recorded outcome	Status
2026-10-12	7 days	Upward outlook	—	Before evaluation date
2026-10-12	30 days	Upward outlook	—	Before evaluation date
2026-10-11	7 days	Upward outlook	—	Before evaluation date
2026-10-11	30 days	Upward outlook	—	Before evaluation date
2026-10-10	7 days	Upward outlook	—	Before evaluation date
2026-10-10	30 days	Upward outlook	—	Before evaluation date

This is a subset of the available records. Overall accuracy and probability error have not been aggregated.

Economic connections

Possible transmission channels between economic factors. Follow a link to read the related commentary.

BitcoinBTC

Interest-rate policyFinancing conditionsNo linked story

Dollar & liquidityGlobal capital flowsNo linked story

Risk appetiteGrowth and inflationNo linked story

Institutional demandParticipation and inflowsNo linked story

RegulationMarket accessNo linked story

Connections describe possible channels, not actual forecast inputs or verified causal relationships.