SignalTraceLab
Koreantoday53
Back to the Bitcoin outlook

Forecast and outcome history

Compare the originally recorded direction with the subsequent recorded outcome.

The history of recorded upward probabilities. Forecast date means the data timestamp for short and medium horizons, and the publication timestamp for long horizons. All charts use the same 0–100% Y-axis; the date range grows as records accumulate.

Date basisKorea Standard Time (UTC+9) · Select a point for dates and outcome status.
Horizons to compare
BTC upward probability by forecast dateShort horizons are blue, medium horizons burgundy and long horizons ochre. The vertical scale runs from 0 to 100 percent. Forecast probability is not confidence or accuracy. Lines connect recorded values. Upward probability (%)02550751002026-09-292026-10-022026-10-052026-10-092026-10-12 24 hours · 2026-10-07 09:00 KST · upward 45.4%24 hours · 2026-10-08 09:00 KST · upward 45.6%24 hours · 2026-10-09 09:00 KST · upward 45.9%24 hours · 2026-10-10 09:00 KST · upward 46.0%24 hours · 2026-10-11 09:00 KST · upward 46.5%24 hours · 2026-10-12 09:00 KST · upward 46.6%7 days · 2026-09-29 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-09-30 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-01 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-02 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-03 09:00 KST · upward 53.8%7 days · 2026-10-04 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-05 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-06 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-07 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-08 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-09 09:00 KST · upward 53.6%7 days · 2026-10-10 09:00 KST · upward 53.6%7 days · 2026-10-11 09:00 KST · upward 53.6%7 days · 2026-10-12 09:00 KST · upward 53.6%30 days · 2026-09-29 09:00 KST · upward 57.6%30 days · 2026-09-30 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-01 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-02 09:00 KST · upward 57.6%30 days · 2026-10-03 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-04 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-05 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-06 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-07 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-08 09:00 KST · upward 57.5%30 days · 2026-10-09 09:00 KST · upward 57.4%30 days · 2026-10-10 09:00 KST · upward 57.5%30 days · 2026-10-11 09:00 KST · upward 57.5%30 days · 2026-10-12 09:00 KST · upward 57.5%3 months · 2026-09-29 12:19 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-09-29 12:22 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-09-29 12:28 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-09-29 12:31 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-09-29 12:43 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-09-29 12:46 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-09-29 13:15 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-09-29 13:16 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-09-29 13:22 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-09-30 07:30 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-10-01 07:30 KST · upward 65.6%3 months · 2026-10-02 07:30 KST · upward 65.6%3 months · 2026-10-03 07:30 KST · upward 65.6%3 months · 2026-10-04 07:30 KST · upward 65.6%3 months · 2026-10-05 07:30 KST · upward 65.6%3 months · 2026-10-06 07:30 KST · upward 65.6%3 months · 2026-10-07 07:30 KST · upward 65.6%3 months · 2026-10-08 07:30 KST · upward 65.6%3 months · 2026-10-09 07:30 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-10-10 07:30 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-10-11 07:30 KST · upward 65.5%3 months · 2026-10-12 07:30 KST · upward 65.5%6 months · 2026-09-29 12:19 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-09-29 12:22 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-09-29 12:28 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-09-29 12:31 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-09-29 12:43 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-09-29 12:46 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-09-29 13:15 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-09-29 13:16 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-09-29 13:22 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-09-30 07:30 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-10-01 07:30 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-10-02 07:30 KST · upward 71.5%6 months · 2026-10-03 07:30 KST · upward 71.5%6 months · 2026-10-04 07:30 KST · upward 71.5%6 months · 2026-10-05 07:30 KST · upward 71.5%6 months · 2026-10-06 07:30 KST · upward 71.6%6 months · 2026-10-07 07:30 KST · upward 71.5%6 months · 2026-10-08 07:30 KST · upward 71.5%6 months · 2026-10-09 07:30 KST · upward 71.4%6 months · 2026-10-10 07:30 KST · upward 71.3%6 months · 2026-10-11 07:30 KST · upward 71.3%6 months · 2026-10-12 07:30 KST · upward 71.4%12 months · 2026-09-29 12:19 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-09-29 12:22 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-09-29 12:28 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-09-29 12:31 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-09-29 12:43 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-09-29 12:46 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-09-29 13:15 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-09-29 13:16 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-09-29 13:22 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-09-30 07:30 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-10-01 07:30 KST · upward 78.9%12 months · 2026-10-02 07:30 KST · upward 78.9%12 months · 2026-10-03 07:30 KST · upward 79.0%12 months · 2026-10-04 07:30 KST · upward 78.9%12 months · 2026-10-05 07:30 KST · upward 79.0%12 months · 2026-10-06 07:30 KST · upward 79.0%12 months · 2026-10-07 07:30 KST · upward 79.0%12 months · 2026-10-08 07:30 KST · upward 79.0%12 months · 2026-10-09 07:30 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-10-10 07:30 KST · upward 78.7%12 months · 2026-10-11 07:30 KST · upward 78.8%12 months · 2026-10-12 07:30 KST · upward 78.8%
BTC upward probability by evaluation dateShort horizons are blue, medium horizons burgundy and long horizons ochre. The vertical scale runs from 0 to 100 percent. Forecast probability is not confidence or accuracy. Lines connect recorded values. Upward probability (%)02550751002026-10-062027-01-062027-04-082027-07-092027-10-10 24 hours · 2026-10-07 09:00 KST · upward 45.4%24 hours · 2026-10-08 09:00 KST · upward 45.6%24 hours · 2026-10-09 09:00 KST · upward 45.9%24 hours · 2026-10-10 09:00 KST · upward 46.0%24 hours · 2026-10-11 09:00 KST · upward 46.5%24 hours · 2026-10-12 09:00 KST · upward 46.6%7 days · 2026-09-29 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-09-30 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-01 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-02 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-03 09:00 KST · upward 53.8%7 days · 2026-10-04 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-05 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-06 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-07 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-08 09:00 KST · upward 53.7%7 days · 2026-10-09 09:00 KST · upward 53.6%7 days · 2026-10-10 09:00 KST · upward 53.6%7 days · 2026-10-11 09:00 KST · upward 53.6%7 days · 2026-10-12 09:00 KST · upward 53.6%30 days · 2026-09-29 09:00 KST · upward 57.6%30 days · 2026-09-30 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-01 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-02 09:00 KST · upward 57.6%30 days · 2026-10-03 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-04 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-05 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-06 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-07 09:00 KST · upward 57.7%30 days · 2026-10-08 09:00 KST · upward 57.5%30 days · 2026-10-09 09:00 KST · upward 57.4%30 days · 2026-10-10 09:00 KST · upward 57.5%30 days · 2026-10-11 09:00 KST · upward 57.5%30 days · 2026-10-12 09:00 KST · upward 57.5%3 months · 2026-10-12 07:30 KST · upward 65.5%6 months · 2026-10-12 07:30 KST · upward 71.4%12 months · 2026-10-12 07:30 KST · upward 78.8%

63 records do not state an evaluation date in the source and appear only in the forecast-date view.

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-06
Recorded outcome
Up
Status
Outcome recorded
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.6%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-29
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:19 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:19 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:19 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:22 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:22 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:22 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:28 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:28 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:28 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:31 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:31 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:31 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:43 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:43 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:43 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:46 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:46 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 12:46 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 13:15 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 13:15 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 13:15 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 13:16 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 13:16 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 13:16 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 13:22 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 13:22 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-09-29 13:22 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-09-30 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-09-30 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-09-30 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date
2026-09-30 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-07
Recorded outcome
Up
Status
Outcome recorded
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date
2026-09-30 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-30
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-01 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-10-01 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.9%

Forecast date
2026-10-01 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-01 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-08
Recorded outcome
Down or flat
Status
Outcome recorded
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-01 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-31
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-02 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-02 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.9%

Forecast date
2026-10-02 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-02 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-09
Recorded outcome
Down or flat
Status
Outcome recorded
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-02 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-01
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-03 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-03 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 79.0%

Forecast date
2026-10-03 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.8%

Forecast date
2026-10-03 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-10
Recorded outcome
Down or flat
Status
Outcome recorded
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-03 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-02
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-04 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-04 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.9%

Forecast date
2026-10-04 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-04 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-11
Recorded outcome
Down or flat
Status
Outcome recorded
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-04 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-03
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-05 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-05 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 79.0%

Forecast date
2026-10-05 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-05 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-12
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Awaiting data
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-05 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-04
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-06 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-06 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 79.0%

Forecast date
2026-10-06 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-06 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-13
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-06 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-05
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-07 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-07 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 79.0%

Forecast date
2026-10-07 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 45.4%

Forecast date
2026-10-07 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-08
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-07 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-14
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-07 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-06
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-08 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-08 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 79.0%

Forecast date
2026-10-08 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 45.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-08 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-09
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-08 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-15
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-08 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-07
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-09 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-10-09 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-10-09 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 45.9%

Forecast date
2026-10-09 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-10
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-09 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-16
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.4%

Forecast date
2026-10-09 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-08
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-10 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.3%

Forecast date
2026-10-10 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.7%

Forecast date
2026-10-10 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 46.0%

Forecast date
2026-10-10 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-11
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-10 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-17
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-10 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-09
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-11 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.3%

Forecast date
2026-10-11 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-10-11 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
Not stated in source
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 46.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-11 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-12
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Outcome linkage unverified
Validation basis
24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-11 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-18
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-11 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-10
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

3 months outlook · upward 65.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-12 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
2027-01-09
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

6 months outlook · upward 71.4%

Forecast date
2026-10-12 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
2027-04-10
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

12 months outlook · upward 78.8%

Forecast date
2026-10-12 07:30 KST
Evaluation date
2027-10-10
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Published long-term history · forward performance unverified

24 hours outlook · upward 46.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-12 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-13
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
24-hour baseline · uncalibrated

7 days outlook · upward 53.6%

Forecast date
2026-10-12 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-10-19
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

30 days outlook · upward 57.5%

Forecast date
2026-10-12 09:00 KST
Evaluation date
2026-11-11
Recorded outcome
Not yet linked
Status
Before evaluation date
Validation basis
Existing forecast history · individual calibration unverified

Select a chart point to see its dates, probability and outcome status here.

Confidence region Not calculated

Confidence regions have not been calculated: realized frequencies by probability band and independent validation samples are not linked. A forecast probability of 70% does not mean the forecast is 70% reliable.

Factors to consider when assessing reliability
Context for reading the probabilities
HorizonConfirmed inputsHistorical comparison samplesValidation status
24 hoursBTC hourly candles2,507Uncalibrated baseline
7 daysBTC closing price · BTC volatility2,154Improvement uncertain
30 daysBTC closing price · BTC volatility2,077Improvement uncertain
3 monthsIndividual input linkage unverified88Improvement uncertain
6 monthsIndividual input linkage unverified83Improvement uncertain
12 monthsIndividual input linkage unverified71Improvement uncertain

This table summarizes the latest edition. Historical comparison samples are not forecasts independently evaluated after publication. Small samples and overlapping periods can weaken validation. Input linkage, calibration and data freshness also matter. The actual probability contribution of background factors such as interest rates and liquidity has not been verified.

Lines connect records for the same horizon; they are not projected price paths or returns. Records awaiting evaluation or data are not counted as successes or failures.

These are the available records. Forecasts awaiting evaluation or data are not counted as correct or incorrect, and overall accuracy has not been aggregated.

The original Bitcoin outlook and the subsequently recorded outcome
Evaluation startHorizonOriginal outlookRecorded outcomeStatus
7 daysUpward outlookDown or flatRecorded outcome
30 daysUpward outlook—Before evaluation date
7 daysUpward outlookDown or flatRecorded outcome
30 daysUpward outlook—Before evaluation date
7 daysUpward outlookUpRecorded outcome
30 daysUpward outlook—Before evaluation date
7 daysUpward outlookUpRecorded outcome
30 daysUpward outlook—Before evaluation date