The US external deficit grew. Where did the money come from?
Story summary
Read only the spending side of a household ledger and money seems to disappear. Another page records borrowing and asset transactions. A country's external accounts also tell only half the story if you read one side.
Releases linked to this story
A linked official release date has not yet been confirmed.
The questions below explain what to check in the next available evidence.
Questions for the next release 3
Which component—goods, services, primary income or transfers—drives the next quarterly change?
When to check
When quarterly external accounts are published- Comparison evidence
- Compare the same items in the official sources linked here with subsequent releases.
- What would change the assessment
- If the goods-balance change is temporary, or valuation changes explain most asset and liability movements, the connection between the external gap and real industries may be limited.
Follow-up evidence not reviewed · Outcome not assessed
How does the balance between transactions and valuation changes shift in external assets and liabilities?
When to check
When the quarterly international investment position is published- Comparison evidence
- Compare the same items in the official sources linked here with subsequent releases.
- What would change the assessment
- If the goods-balance change is temporary, or valuation changes explain most asset and liability movements, the connection between the external gap and real industries may be limited.
Follow-up evidence not reviewed · Outcome not assessed
Do import and export changes appear in industry orders and company cash flow with matching time lags?
When to check
When monthly trade and quarterly company disclosures are updated- Comparison evidence
- Compare the same items in the official sources linked here with subsequent releases.
- What would change the assessment
- If the goods-balance change is temporary, or valuation changes explain most asset and liability movements, the connection between the external gap and real industries may be limited.
Follow-up evidence not reviewed · Outcome not assessed