Lending is growing. Why worry about the economy?
Story summary
Does borrowing more from a bank mean business is going well? The money might expand a factory—or barely cover more expensive materials. A loan balance cannot tell us how the owner feels.
Releases linked to this story
A linked official release date has not yet been confirmed.
The questions below explain what to check in the next available evidence.
Questions for the next release 3
How widely are energy costs feeding into intermediate-goods and consumer prices?
When to check
This edition has not verified a confirmed publication date for the follow-up data.- Comparison evidence
- Energy, intermediate-goods and consumer prices over the same period
- What would change the assessment
- The transmission hypothesis weakens if lower costs and limited pass-through are both confirmed.
Follow-up evidence not reviewed · Outcome not assessed
Is business loan demand more closely linked to investment or working capital?
When to check
This edition has not verified a confirmed publication date for the follow-up data.- Comparison evidence
- Rates, approvals and investment versus working-capital purposes by company size
- What would change the assessment
- Stable lending conditions and approval trends would weaken the hypothesis of uneven transmission.
Follow-up evidence not reviewed · Outcome not assessed
Does household borrowing reflect room for housing and consumption, or pressure from living costs?
When to check
This edition has not verified a confirmed publication date for the follow-up data.- Comparison evidence
- Income, consumption, arrears and loan purposes by income group
- What would change the assessment
- Improving real incomes and stable stress indicators would weaken the living-cost borrowing hypothesis.
Follow-up evidence not reviewed · Outcome not assessed