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Economy & industry · 2 min read

Korea's exports 'doubled', but it had 1.6x the working days

Per working day, exports rose 1.3x. That daily pace is still a record for the first ten days of any month.

Economy & industry · 3 min read

Growth was revised up. Why does my wallet feel no different?

The economy's report card improved, but your bank balance seems unmoved. Did it miss the news? The key is that GDP growth and household income are looking at different periods.

Economy & industry · 5 min read

The US external deficit grew. Where did the money come from?

Read only the spending side of a household ledger and money seems to disappear. Another page records borrowing and asset transactions. A country's external accounts also tell only half the story if you read one side.

Economy & industry · 5 min read

Companies raised more money. Will factories get busier?

Money arriving in an account opens up choices: repay debt, buy equipment or leave it untouched for now. A funding announcement cannot tell us which ending a company will choose.

Economy & industry · 5 min read

Historical statistics now connect. Can we simply compare them?

Arrange old photographs in order and you have a growth album. But if each picture used a different ruler, you would need another look to measure the change. Long statistical series also need consistent comparisons.

Economy & industry · 6 min read

New-home sales fell and inventories rose. Is that a downturn signal?

A drop in home sales is easy to worry about. Yet this estimate still carries a wide margin of error. It is like receiving a report card with a note saying the grading is not finished.

Economy & industry · 6 min read

Money flowed into the U.S. But through which door?

A crowded entrance does not mean every room is filling up. The same is true of capital entering the United States. Money buying Treasuries and money entering banks have different destinations.

Finance & funding · 5 min read

Lending is growing. Why worry about the economy?

Does borrowing more from a bank mean business is going well? The money might expand a factory—or barely cover more expensive materials. A loan balance cannot tell us how the owner feels.

Finance & funding · 3 min read

A banking rule's deadline moved. Will borrowing get easier?

An extra month to hand in an assignment is welcome. It does not make the assignment easier. An extension of the comment period for a bank lending rule is much the same.

Finance & funding · 5 min read

The digital euro: what is being tested behind the payment button?

You tap once to pay, but several institutions work behind the scenes. Add receipts and refunds, and that one button represents quite an organization. How will the digital euro test these connections?

Finance & funding · 5 min read

Stablecoins sound stable. Where is the money?

Putting ‘stable’ in a name does not automatically put your mind at ease. What matters is which assets back the token, who holds them and how holders get their money back if something goes wrong.

Finance & funding · 5 min read

When a bank outsources work, does responsibility go with it?

Work can be outsourced. The headaches when a service fails are harder to pack into a box and send away. What should banks and technology suppliers each be responsible for?

Jobs & employment · 3 min read

Jobs barely changed. Why do industries look so different?

A class average can stay unchanged while some students improve and others fall behind. Employment statistics work similarly: looking only at the average can hide what happened inside the classroom.

Jobs & employment · 5 min read

Benefits are available at work. Why do fewer people participate?

An item on the menu does not end up on everyone's plate. Workplace benefits also have a gap between ‘available’ and ‘actually used.’ What lies between them?

Jobs & employment · 5 min read

When jobs appear, can displaced workers move straight into them?

An empty chair does not mean anyone can sit down immediately. It may be in another city or require new skills. In the labor market, the route to a seat matters as much as the number of seats.

Jobs & employment · 5 min read

U.S. employment looks quiet. But in which neighborhood?

A national weather average cannot tell you whether to pack an umbrella. Employment statistics are similar: a quiet total does not mean every region had the same day.

Rates & monetary policy · 5 min read

The Fed raised rates. When will companies feel it?

A policy-rate increase does not change every company's interest bill at once. Some borrowed at fixed rates; others need new financing. Rate changes have an order of arrival.

Prices & inflation · 5 min read

Prices rose. Did your shopping basket rise by the same amount?

An average inflation rate contains an average shopping basket. How closely your basket resembles it is another question. A car commuter and someone spending heavily on rent may read the same release differently.

Prices & inflation · 5 min read

Production costs rose. When will companies feel the cash impact?

When raw materials get more expensive, do profits fall immediately? Stock in the warehouse and contracts already signed may buy a company time. The day a price changes is not necessarily the day cash leaves the bank.

Energy · 5 min read

Why did gasoline and diesel stocks fall while crude held steady?

Ingredients in the fridge do not mean dinner is ready. Crude oil also has to pass through a refinery before becoming usable fuel. Which part of this kitchen do the inventory figures count?

Energy · 5 min read

Crude is piling up. Why isn't transport fuel plentiful?

Rice in a warehouse does not deliver a lunchbox. It still needs cooking, packing and loading onto a vehicle. Crude oil also passes through intermediate stages before becoming transport fuel.